Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
